[Sportschosun Reporter Jang Jong-ho] As the Russia-Ukraine War drags on for nearly four and a half years, a claim that Russian military recruits survive only 20 to 35 minutes on average after being sent into combat has caused shock. Analysts say Russia is sending poorly trained recruits to the front to make up for manpower shortages, leading to heavy casualties.
According to foreign media outlets including the New York Post, Peter Frankopan, a historian and global professor at the University of Oxford, cited analyses by Russian military bloggers in a column for Foreign Policy and reported the claim.
He said that recruits who join the Russian military spend only about 10 days to three weeks from arriving at a training camp to being killed in action. Some assessments even suggest that once they are deployed to the front line, their survival time drops to just 20 to 35 minutes.
Russia is struggling to secure enough troops as the war drags on.
Russian authorities said they recruited more than 420,000 new contract soldiers last year, but even state-run media reportedly acknowledged that this year's recruitment volume has fallen by about 30% from a year earlier.
Russian military bloggers claimed that 800 to 1,000 volunteer contract soldiers are still being recruited each day, but many are sent to the front after only a few days of basic training.
Western intelligence agencies and military analysis institutions estimate that Russia's average monthly casualties exceed 30,000. Since the war began in February 2022, Russia's cumulative casualties are believed to have surpassed 1 million.
With a population of about 143 million, Russia is also estimated to be losing roughly eight troops for every one Ukrainian casualty.
As the manpower shortage deepens, the Russian government is offering extraordinary incentives to recruit new soldiers.
In some regions, applicants are reportedly being offered enlistment bonuses of up to $80,000 and debt forgiveness of up to $140,000.
That is seen as a major incentive, given that Russia's average monthly wage is around $1,000 and incomes in the provinces are far lower.
Russia's high casualty rate is widely attributed to the impact of drone warfare.
Ukrainian forces are making extensive use of attack drones and inflicting heavy losses on Russian troops.
The burden of military spending is also growing.
Russia is currently spending more than half of its national budget on military expenses, and some experts warn that such spending could place a serious long-term burden on the Russian economy.
Alexander Runin, a military blogger who served in the Russian military, claimed in a recently released video that Russian commanders have repeatedly tortured and abused soldiers.
According to Fortune, he demanded a live public meeting with President Vladimir Putin and warned that if it was not granted, "the military could turn its guns toward the Kremlin."
However, Professor Frankopan said the chances of an immediate revolution inside Russia are slim.
Instead, he expressed concern that the more cornered Putin becomes, the more likely he is to choose further escalation of the war.
Frankopan said, "Beware of a drowning man," adding, "The coming months, when Putin will be desperately trying to hold on to power, could be a very dangerous time both inside and outside Russia."
Jang Jong-ho, bellho@sportschosun.com
